Piper Sandler: GTA 6 could sell 45M+ copies at launch

Wall Street firm Piper Sandler says GTA VI could sell more than 45 million copies at launch, and it kept its Overweight rating on Take-Two after surveying about 9,000 teens. The note was reported on November 2, 2026 by Investing.com, Seeking Alpha, Wccftech and Game Rant, 17 days before the November 19 release.

What the survey says

The market reacted: Take-Two shares rose about 1.5% on November 2, according to Yahoo Finance and Investing.com.

Read it with care

• It measures intent, not purchases. Stated plans usually run ahead of real sales, and the sample is teens, not the whole market.
• The 45M figure does not come from the survey alone. Earlier coverage says Piper’s model also draws on past launches and online-community activity.
• “Launch” is loosely defined. Some outlets say day one, others the launch window; the sources do not agree, so treat it as a headline number.
• Other estimates are lower. Coverage cites industry expectations near 25 million units, and a separate Newzoo estimate of up to 51 million by the end of launch week.
• Household overlap. The survey noted that about 21% of active consoles share a household, which limits the addressable market.

Wedbush also published commentary the same day arguing Take-Two’s GTA VI earnings could prove “more durable” than the market expects; outlets describe its price-target changes differently, so we do not rely on them here.

What’s next

Real numbers arrive after November 19, when Take-Two and Rockstar can report actual sales. In the meantime, compare this with the Sensor Tower pre-order estimate and the Circana purchase-intent record. For the date and prices, see the release date hub and the price and editions guide.